The future of baseball. Time for change?
Is Baseball in danger of stagnating? Can the game be made more global? What does the future of Baseball look like?
Dave White is on the mound for the first time in his Sporting Blog career and takes a look at some hard questions about where Baseball is heading.
Baseball - An International sport
Baseball has inconsistent coverage and popularity across the globe; people will automatically associate the sport with the USA, but you will find pockets of extreme popularity - Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Venezuela, Cuba, Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico will list baseball as their number one sport.
You will find it rivalling cricket in some Caribbean nations and soccer in Central American and South American nations (with pro leagues in Mexico and Colombia), you will find professional baseball in Australia, but you won’t find much in Europe or Africa. There are some big markets where the game is played but there are some notable gaps. With that in mind, what is the future for the sport? Will it grow and, if so, how?
We need to get away from the idea that baseball only exists in the USA and we certainly need to address the myth of its popularity in the USA. NFL and NBA are currently more popular than MLB, and soccer and NHL would have a good argument to lay claim to third place in US sporting popularity.
In fact, TV audiences and attendances (2020 excluded for obvious reasons) in the US are on the decline. I wouldn’t say the outlook for the sport is bleak in the US, but MLB being the premier baseball league in the world with arguably the best players, this trend does not bode well for the sport. Compare that to other elite sports leagues where attendances and audiences are flourishing.
Marketing the sport and its stars
MLB is looking at ways to boost its popularity mainly centring around ways to shorten the game, but I argue you should not be altering the game, you need to be promoting the product that made it popular to begin with.
You need to make it sexy. Make it appealing.
People understand slam dunks and touchdowns, so get people knowing about 450 feet home runs, diving catches of 100mph hit line drives and strikeouts from bewildering curveballs. It is a great game of speed, power, athleticism and endurance, but non-fans don’t understand that and give it unfair labels, such as ‘slow’ and ‘boring’.
Mike Trout is building a case to be the best baseball player, not just of now, but ever. However, he could walk around London, Paris, Berlin without being bothered. He could walk across a lot of the US and not be noticed. He could cross Europe and Africa and no one would stop him. LeBron James couldn’t. Tom Brady couldn’t.
Baseball needs people across the globe to know who Mike Trout is, baseball needs his profile (amongst others; Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna Jnr and Gerrit Cole spring to mind) to help it grow. To sell this product, people need to see the crushing home runs and the highlight-reel plays in the field. There is so much more to the game than this, but baseball needs a starting point, and every sport needs a hero and an icon that you can identify with.
Baseball’s health outside of the USA
Having said that in regard to the USA, in the East Asian, Caribbean and Latin American countries mentioned above, the sport is in very good health indeed and the standard is good, even very good, in some of these leagues. Kids are playing the game in parks, in the street and they have the opportunity to play youth baseball. These programmes won’t be loaded with money, but these countries are providing the opportunity for the youngsters to play and they are generating world-class players.
It doesn’t take a lot to provide grassroots baseball and these countries are proving that - we see grassroots cricket and rugby in Europe, so why can’t we see it with baseball. I pick those two sports because they both require equipment to play: baseball requires equipment, but not much and the example set by these countries is showing what you can do.
Present the opportunity for youngsters to play, and you will get them playing.
The game in Europe and Africa is pretty much non-existent (there are some decent leagues in the Netherlands and Italy, but it is amateur level). I do understand this, as baseball is competing with high-profile sports such as football, hockey, rugby, cricket, racket sports and athletics. However, I know there is a huge pool of fans of baseball in Europe, I’ve witnessed this myself - the commercial possibilities are there - but this needs galvanising.
Just look at the London Series last year: two games completely sold out with wonderful atmospheres. Baseball needs to take a chance with these continents as there is potential, but it needs exposure, it needs money and it needs grassroots engagement.
The MLB London Series: 120,000 fans, 50 runs, 2 games, 1 unforgettable weekend of rivalry.
Baseball at the Olympics - Pluses and Minuses
One small positive I can point to is that baseball returns to the Olympics for 2021 (proving the standing it has in Japan) after an absence from 2012 and 2016, so it will get some exposure there. However, and this is really concerning, it looks like the games are going to be played over 7 innings. This is not a good prospect for the game. I know there are big conversations about trying to take time out of the game to make it more appealing, but this is not the way to do it. It is imperative that the rule makers do not mess with the framework of the game, you would not reduce football matches to 70 minutes so the IOC need to leave this alone.
My fear is that, if this generates interest, this will leak into the professional game. Yes, we want to promote the game to Millennials and to new fans, and we want people to be interested in the game, but do not reduce the playing time. Don’t punish those who love the game for what it is.
Baseball was created like this and should stay that way, there are certainly other ways to take time out of the game and make it more attractive (hitters, stop stepping out and adjusting your gloves!), reducing the action time is not one of them, we want these innings, to see more home runs, more action in the field and more entertainment. It’s absurd to think that baseball fans are craving less action, so leave it alone. Cricket is a long game. NFL is a long game. Golf is a long game. These sports are not struggling for fans. So what is the problem with a three-hour baseball game?
Some ideas to consider
Just as a starter to boost the exposure and popularity of the game, here’s a far-out idea.
How about we have a true ‘World’ Series? So have a short, two week tournament of 8 pro league champions from around the world playing a best-of-three, knock-out bracket to determine the best club team in the world. It won’t happen (MLB will have too much control to allow this), but I’d like to see the champions of the US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Venezuela, Mexico, Puerto Rico and the Netherlands (just for example) all face off against each other.
Just an idea. But baseball needs a few more like this.
The sport is in real danger of stagnating, or even going backwards in some respects; that is the current reality. The fear that many baseball fans have at this moment is that the baseball authorities are going to tinker with the game or change some fundamental aspects to try to arrest this slide. There are some subtle changes that will help but leave the fundamentals.
Time is not the issue. Wider promotion, further education of the game (people engage when they understand) and more opportunities for people to play are what is needed.
Invest in the game and you will reap the rewards.
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