Will Ireland Win the 2023 Rugby Union World Cup?
Assessing Ireland’s Prospects Eight Months Ahead of RWC 2023
Fast forward to 28 October as Ireland are crowned Rugby World Cup champions and their captain, Johnny Sexton, triumphantly raises aloft the Webb Ellis trophy at the Stade de France in Paris.
This is the fervent wish of every Ireland supporter but how realistic is it?
Irish rugby star Johnny Sexton
It’s January 2023 so it’s timely if we have a closer look under the bonnet. How good are Ireland and what are the challenges they must surmount if they are to be crowned World Cup champions?
First, Ireland will not need reminding that their World Cup track record is less than illustrious.
They have never progressed beyond the quarter finals and that could still be at the back of their mind at this year’s tournament, as it progresses through the pool stage to the serious business of the knockouts.
Ireland are currently ranked number one in the world, but they have been here before.
In 2018, they achieved a Six Nations Grand Slam and, in the process, defeated both England and France away from home.
In November that year they edged out New Zealand in Dublin in the Autumn Nations series and ended the year as world number one.
However, the following year they were unable to build on that momentum in the run up to the World Cup in Japan.
They finished 3rd in the Six Nations and, at the World Cup itself, finished runner-up to Japan in the pool stage before being overwhelmed by the All Blacks in the quarter final.
So, will it be different this time? There are plenty of positives to suggest so.
Let’s look at their progress since the last World Cup.
Strong performances in 2022
2022 was unquestionably a good year for Irish rugby after the Covid pandemic’s disruption of all countries’ fixtures schedules and training camps in 2020 and 2021.
Thankfully 2022 was an uninterrupted year so preparations for 2023 could begin in earnest.
Ireland kicked off the year by finishing second in the Six Nations to Grand Slam champions France, World Cup hosts this year and tipped by many to win it in their own backyard.
Then in the summer Ireland completed a first ever away series win over New Zealand, beating their hosts 2-1 in the three test series.
This was no mean achievement and the rugby world took notice.
In the Autumn Nations series in Dublin, they added the scalps of South Africa and Australia to round off the year top of the pile.
The rugby wasn’t always free-flowing and easy on the eye, but sometimes you just have to win ugly.
Andy Farrell – England’s loss and Ireland’s gain
A lot of Ireland’s recent form and success can be attributed to Coach Andy Farrell.
Andy stepped up to replace Joe Schmidt as Ireland's Head Coach after the 2019 World Cup, having come in as Assistant Coach in 2016.
Previously he had worked as England's Assistant Coach to Eddie Jones.
Since becoming Head Coach Farrell has quietly and systematically been laying solid foundations for Ireland’s World Cup preparations.
He has reshaped the squad’s style of play into a more expansive, pressing brand of rugby. They are now more comfortable playing with ball in hand and look more confident as a result.
There is strength in depth also in his coaching team, with the likes of experienced internationals Paul O’Connell, Simon Easterby and Mike Catt.
Easterby took a 35 man Emerging Ireland squad to South Africa in the Autumn where they achieved a 3-0 series win against local club sides.
The tour was designed to give the coaching team an opportunity to look further at the talent pool, and for these young players on the fringe of the national squad to press their claims for inclusion in the 33-man squad for the Rugby World Cup itself.
In that sense, the tour was a success. It will also have the added value of keeping the core squad on their toes, knowing that the competition for squad places will be fiercer than ever.
Following the recent sacking of England Coach Eddie Jones, their RFU could be forgiven if they cast an envious glance in Farrell’s direction and harbour hopes of bringing him back to the fold in the not too distant future.
Sorry folks, but Andy has already signed a contract extension until at least August 2025.
The Leinster machine powers on
Here’s an understated fact: Leinster are an exceptionally good side.
Here’s another fact to underline it - in two of the summer 2022 Tests against New Zealand, twelve of the Ireland starting XV were Leinster players.
Without so much as drawing breath, Leinster have come out of the blocks this season with a laser-like focus and are unbeaten in all competitions.
The four provinces of Leinster, Munster, Ulster and Connacht provide the framework for professional club rugby in Ireland.
They play in the United Rugby Championship along with club sides from Wales, Scotland, Italy and, more recently, South Africa.
This season Leinster are runaway leaders in the URC and are firm favourites for the European Champions Cup which also includes English and French clubs.
However, their success is not a closed shop.
Over the years, many Leinster players have moved to the other three provinces in search of more game time, such is the competition for places.
This creates a ripple effect for the benefit of all the provinces and Ireland alike.
For many years, Leinster have had a conveyor belt of young talent from schools around Dublin feeding into their academy and then the senior squad.
The sheer strength in depth of the squad, the ease with which they are dominating the URC and the (not universally popular) IRFU central contracts give Leinster the luxury of resting key players more regularly than their counterparts in the Aviva Premiership.
This helps them to join the national squad fresher and more energised ahead of major tournaments.
Their crop of world class players are all in their prime - Robbie Henshaw, Garry Ringrose, Tadgh Furlong and World Player of the Year, Josh van der Flier, to name but a few.
Leinster’s fortunes have often been a barometer for those of the national team. This season they are purring like a Rolls Royce.
On that basis, this World Cup year looks very promising indeed.
The Sexton conundrum
Johnny Sexton seems to have been around forever. The Leinster fly-half has orchestrated play for Ireland since he made his debut in 2009.
He has won 109 caps and toured twice with the British and Ireland Lions. But he will be 38 when the World Cup comes around, and this will surely be his last chance for glory on the world stage.
In the run-up to the tournament, the challenge for the Leinster and Ireland coaching staff will be to manage his game time and reduce the risk of injury, to which he has become more prone in recent years.
Former Ireland coach Eddie O’Sullivan said an obvious takeaway from Ireland’s narrow win against Australia in November was the team’s “lack of direction” after Sexton’s late withdrawal.
“Ireland have more direction and know what they are doing when Sexton is at the helm,” said O’Sullivan.
Sexton’s continuing importance to the team will remain a concern for Ireland fans, with coach Andy Farrell still trying to decide on an obvious back-up fly half.
Three things won’t change if Sexton is primed and ready for the World Cup – he will be his normal petulant self, he’ll be singled out by the opposition for special treatment as much if not more than ever, but he will be there directing the traffic, as always.
A tough road to Paris
Without boring you with the details, one of the peculiarities of the draw for the World Cup pool stage is that it was made in December 2020 – 998 days before it kicks off!
As you would expect, teams were seeded based on their ranking at that time.
Those rankings can of course change before the tournament begins and they certainly did, with the result that the current top four – Ireland, France, New Zealand and South Africa all find themselves in the same side of the draw.
But, as 2022 has demonstrated, every team looks beatable and any one of six or seven could be crowned champions in what promises to be a very exciting tournament.
Ireland will play South Africa in Pool B and, assuming the top four all finish 1st or 2nd in their respective pools (and they should), then Ireland must beat either France or New Zealand in the quarter final to progress further.
What it means is that two of the world’s top four will exit in the quarter finals, arguably to the detriment of the tournament as a spectacle.
Clearly, the road to the semi finals and final is a tough one if Ireland are to improve on their best ever finish. They will have to overcome the top sides at some point in the tournament if they are to win it.
So, they know they’ll just have to slip into their big boy pants right from the off.
First up is the Six Nations which kicks off in early February. Ireland will be keen to polish their World Cup credentials and a Grand Slam would do exactly that.
When you are number one in the world, the target is always on your back but there’s no question that they enter World Cup year in very good shape.
Close your eyes and do you see that picture of Johnny Sexton holding aloft the Webb Ellis trophy come into sharper focus?
